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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ41 KNHC 231437

800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The compact hurricane is maintaining its strength this morning.
The eye of Karina has become a little more distinct during the past
few hours and cloud tops remain quite cold to the south of the
center.  The initial wind speed is held at 70 kt based on a blend
of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values
from UW-CIMSS.  The hurricane will soon cross the 26 C isotherm,
and total precipitable water imagery shows some dry air beginning
to wrap around the circulation.  These environmental conditions
combined with some increase in shear should cause the weakening
process to begin later today or tonight.  The NHC intensity forecast
is largely an update of the previous one and lies fairly close to
the intensity model consensus, IVCN.

Karina is moving northeastward at about 6 kt in the broad
southwesterly flow to the south of much larger but weaker Tropical
Storm Lowell.  A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later
today and that general motion should continue for the the next
couple of days.  Beyond that time, however, the models have
differing solutions.  The previous discussion outlined the varying
scenarios of what could drive Karina northward and northwestward as
it interacts with what is left of Lowell, and the possibility that
Karina stalls or is driven further eastward due to its interaction
with Hurricane Marie.  The models are trending toward the latter
scenario, and the NHC official track forecast shows a slower forward
speed at days 3-5 to account for that information.


INIT  23/1500Z 17.2N 134.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 17.6N 133.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 18.2N 131.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 18.7N 129.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 19.0N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 20.3N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 20.8N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Aug-2014 14:38:09 UTC