Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion
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362 WTPZ41 KNHC 291433 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 AM MST Thu May 29 2025 Tropical Storm Alvin has formed several hundred n mi south of southwestern Mexico. Satellite imagery shows thunderstorm activity has increased and has become more organized around the center. Although the TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates have been steady at 2.0/30 kt, the objective satellite intensity estimates are higher and generally between 35 and 45 kt. Based on a consensus of the data, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is 315/9 kt. The storm is expected to continue toward the northwest today, then begin turning toward the north-northwest tomorrow as it moves around a ridge centered over central Mexico. By tomorrow night, Alvin will begin moving northward as it is influenced my a mid-level cut-off low. The NHC track forecast is generally similar to the previous one. Alvin should continue to strengthen today, within a favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear for about the next 24 hours. The NHC peak intensity remains at 50 kt, which is near the high end of the model guidance. Weakening is expected to begin tomorrow as the storm moves into progressively higher shear and a drier environment with cooler SSTs. There is high confidence that the system will weaken to a remnant low before it nears the Baja California Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 13.8N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.7N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 16.1N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 17.6N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 19.1N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 20.7N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1200Z 21.9N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Mora/Cangialosi