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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ41 KNHC 301446

800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

The depression has become a little better organized with a more
prominent central dense overcast feature forming overnight. However,
recent microwave images show that the center remains on the
southwestern edge of the deep convection, suggesting that
southwesterly shear continues to affect the depression.  Although
the overall satellite presentation has improved, Dvorak intensity
estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed will
conservatively remain 30 kt.

Although the depression is over warm water, southwesterly shear and
dry air in the low- to mid-levels are expected to continue for
the next day or two.  As a result, the latest model guidance does
not show a lot of strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues the
trend of showing only slow intensification.  After that time, the
global models forecast a reduction in the shear, along with an
increase in moisture. These conditions should promote more
significant strengthening at longer ranges.  The NHC forecast is
closest to the SHIPS models at days 3-4, and remains above the model
consensus after considering the favorable large-scale environment.
Increasing south-southwesterly shear could halt any additional
strengthening after that time.

The center appears to have reformed a little northeast of the
previous estimates closer to the stronger thunderstorm activity,
leading to an uncertain initial motion estimate of west at 5 kt.
The depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward and
southwestward during the next 36 hours while a mid-level ridge
builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. The ridge is
forecast to shift eastward during the next few days, which should
cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward
in 48 to 72 hours.  After that time, the tropical cyclone is
forecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough approaches
the Baja California peninsula.  The official NHC forecast is a
little faster than the consensus after accounting for the
unrealistically slow HWRF solution, and is very close to the
previous forecast.


INIT  30/1500Z 11.5N 100.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

Forecaster Blake

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Page last modified: Thursday, 30-Oct-2014 14:46:48 UTC