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Tropical Storm Fernanda Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 202036
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Fernanda is comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds that
is currently devoid of deep convection.  The initial intensity is
reduced to 50 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates, and
it is again possible that this is generous.  While the sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track should increase, a combination
of continued moderate-to-strong shear and entrainment of dry air
should keep Fernanda steadily weakening through the forecast
period.  The cyclone is now forecast to become a depression in
about 24 h and a remnant low in about 36 h, and both of these events
could occur earlier if convection does not redevelop.  The new
intensity forecast also now calls for the system to degenerate to a
trough after 96 h, in agreement with all of the large-scale models
except the GFS.

The initial motion is now 280/11.  Fernanda is expected to move
west-northwestward to westward through the forecast period as the
increasingly weak and shallow vortex is steered by the low-level
trade winds.  The new forecast track is shifted a little to the
south of the previous forecast based on the current motion and the
premise that a weaker system will move more westward in the current
environment.  The new track now lies a little to the south of the
model consensus.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Fernanda.  Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
beginning at 5 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header
WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 18.2N 140.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 18.5N 141.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 19.0N 143.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 19.6N 145.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1800Z 20.2N 147.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1800Z 21.5N 151.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1800Z 22.5N 156.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven