Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTPZ41 KNHC 311438

800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

There hasn't been a lot of significant change with the structure of
Vance during the past several hours.  While the central convection
has weakened some, the convection associated with a banding feature
on the east side has increased.  Dvorak estimates are similar to 6
hours ago, so the initial wind speed will remain 40 kt.  Vance
continues to struggle with southwesterly shear and dry air.  Most
of the models, however, suggest that the shear should abate over the
weekend, with increasing moisture and upper-level divergence
expected as well.  The latest model guidance generally shows a
higher peak intensity, and the NHC forecast is now a bit higher at
48-72 hours.  After that time, a significant increase in
southwesterly shear is forecast, which will likely cause weakening
while the cyclone approaches Mexico.

The center has not been easy to track with this cyclone, but the
latest microwave and visible satellite data suggest it has been
creeping toward the south-southwest.  A ridge over the eastern
Pacific is expected to move eastward over the next few days,
steering the cyclone more steadily west-southwestward by late today,
westward tomorrow, and to the northwest by late this weekend. Vance
is then forecast to turn northward and then northeastward ahead of a
trough moving over Baja California.  While the models are in good
agreement on the overall track, there remains some spread in the
timing of the turn toward Mexico.  The guidance is generally faster
than the last cycle, so the updated NHC forecast follows that trend.
Overall the forecast is also little east of the previous one, mostly
because of the initial motion and position.


INIT  31/1500Z 10.1N 100.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z  9.7N 101.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z  9.6N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 10.2N 105.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 11.4N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 15.0N 109.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 19.3N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 23.5N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

Forecaster Blake

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 31-Oct-2014 14:38:21 UTC