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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ41 KNHC 211435

800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

Although Karina's appearance on geostationary satellite imagery is
not very impressive, a recent GPM microwave satellite image showed a
partial eyewall feature.  This indicates that the inner core is well
defined, and the intensity estimate is increased to 50 kt, which is
a little above the latest Dvorak estimates.  It appears that the
vertical shear over the storm has relaxed a little, but Karina is
over marginal sea surface temperatures and the forecast track takes
the cyclone over cooler waters.  A weakening trend is likely to
commence in 24 hours or so, as shown by the official wind speed
forecast.  This forecast is a little below the intensity model

Based on an excellent fix from the aforementioned microwave image,
the center has been repositioned a bit south of the previously
estimated track.  This yields an initial motion estimate of 180/2
kt.  Karina remains in an environment of weak steering currents at
this time.  However, as the larger Hurricane Lowell moves northwest,
the separation distance between Karina and Lowell will be
decreasing, which will increase the influence of the latter cyclone
on the former.  The flow over the southern and southeastern portions
of Lowell's circulation should cause Karina to turn toward the
northeast with some acceleration over the next few days, and
eventually move northward to north-northwestward late in the period.
The official forecast is a little slower than the dynamical model
consensus, and similar to the latest Florida State University
Superensemble track.


INIT  21/1500Z 15.0N 136.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 14.8N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 15.0N 135.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 15.6N 135.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 23.0N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1200Z 27.5N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Thursday, 21-Aug-2014 14:35:28 UTC