Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion
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190 WTPZ41 KNHC 282033 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 300 PM CST Wed May 28 2025 Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure have continued to become better organized over the past 12 hours. Some banding features have become more pronounced over the southern semi-circle. Recent scatterometer data depicts that the system now has a well-defined low-level center. Thus, the system is now classified as a tropical depression, the first of the eastern Pacific season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a T2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB. The initial estimated motion is northwest at 320/8 kt, although there is higher uncertainty in this motion given the recent low-level center formation. Models are in fairly good agreement that the system should continue northwest to north-northwest over the next few days within the low-level flow. Environmental conditions are favorable for strengthening over the next couple of days with warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear. After 48 h the system is likely to enter a fairly harsh environment with drier mid-level air, cooler sea surface temperatures, and increasing wind shear which should induce a weakening trend. The latest model simulated IR satellite imagery shows that convection is likely to collapse by Saturday, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low and dissipate early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 11.9N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 12.9N 105.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 13.9N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 15.2N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 16.7N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 31/0600Z 18.6N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 20.1N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z 23.1N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mora