Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion
WTNT45 KNHC 022045
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
Tracking the center of Dolly this afternoon has been, to say the
least, challenging. Aircraft and scatterometer wind data show that
the center of the storm reformed to the south of the previous track
and nearer to the middle of the deep convection. Flight-level and
SFMR observations support an initial intensity of about 40 kt.
Since the center is expected to move inland in less than 12 hours,
no significant change in strength is likely before landfall. Once
inland, Dolly should weaken fairly rapidly over the mountains of
northeastern Mexico and the system could dissipate even sooner than
indicated by the NHC forecast.
With the center relocation, it is extremely difficult to estimate
the initial motion, but my best guess is 270/10 kt. Despite the
complex small-scale motions, the large-scale steering pattern
remains roughly the same. A mid-tropospheric ridge near the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast should drive Dolly in a generally
westward direction over the next day or two. The official track
forecast has been shifted southward due to the center reformation.
This lies about in the middle of the track guidance model suite.
The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 22.0N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 22.0N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/1800Z 22.0N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND