Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTNT45 KNHC 022045
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

Tracking the center of Dolly this afternoon has been, to say the
least, challenging.  Aircraft and scatterometer wind data show that
the center of the storm reformed to the south of the previous track
and nearer to the middle of the deep convection.  Flight-level and
SFMR observations support an initial intensity of about 40 kt.
Since the center is expected to move inland in less than 12 hours,
no significant change in strength is likely before landfall.  Once
inland, Dolly should weaken fairly rapidly over the mountains of
northeastern Mexico and the system could dissipate even sooner than
indicated by the NHC forecast.

With the center relocation, it is extremely difficult to estimate
the initial motion, but my best guess is 270/10 kt.  Despite the
complex small-scale motions, the large-scale steering pattern
remains roughly the same.  A mid-tropospheric ridge near the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast should drive Dolly in a generally
westward direction over the next day or two.  The official track
forecast has been shifted southward due to the center reformation.
This lies about in the middle of the track guidance model suite.

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 22.0N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 22.0N  98.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/1800Z 22.0N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 02-Sep-2014 20:45:14 UTC