Tropical Depression FIFTEEN Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT45 KNHC 122030
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152007
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007

THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT IT IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING TO A
REMNANT LOW. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...
THEREFORE REGENERATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE SYSTEM COULD STILL
PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURST OF CONVECTION BEFORE DISSIPATION.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD DRIFT
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      12/2100Z 30.8N  49.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 31.5N  49.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 32.5N  49.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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FORECASTER AVILA