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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion


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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

Lee is displaying a 15 nm wide eye amidst a small central dense
overcast.  SAB, TAFB, Advanced Dvorak, and AMSU intensity estimates
are all similar, indicating an initial maximum wind speed that
remains 80 kt.

The LGEM and DSHIPS statistical guidance shows continued
hurricane intensity for the next several days because of low
vertical shear and warm waters.  However, the HWRF and COAMPS
dynamical model output suggests quite a bit weaker system, perhaps
because these models are anticipating that Lee will move over its
own cold wake in a couple of days.  By day 4 or 5, the environment
should become hostile as cooler, drier air gets entrained into Lee
and it experiences strong vertical shear from the outflow of
Hurricane Maria.  The official intensity forecast is in between the
weaker dynamical models and the stronger previous advisory.

The system is moving toward the southeast at about 3 kt.  The
hurricane should bend back toward the southwest and then west
during the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge gets
re-established north of Lee.  By day 4 the system should recurve
and accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast, as it gets
picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track model
consensus has shifted westward through day 3 and then accelerated
faster toward the northeast by day 5.  The official track
forecast follows suit, using the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach.

Lee is a tiny hurricane.  The 1236Z ASCAT pass showed that tropical
storm-force-winds only extend outward at most 30 nm from the
center.  The global models indicate only a slightly larger hurricane
over time and the official size forecasts are based upon the RVCN
multi-model scheme.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 31.3N  49.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 31.0N  49.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 30.7N  49.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 30.3N  50.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 30.4N  51.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 31.0N  53.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 33.0N  53.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 37.0N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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