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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion


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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

The rapid intensification of Lee appears to have slowed for now.
Lee has a well-defined 10 to 15 n mi wide eye, but the cloud tops
surrounding the eye have not cooled since the previous advisory.
Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and
UW/CIMSS all support 75 to 80 kt, and the initial intensity is set
at 80 kt.

The intensity forecast of the small hurricane is somewhat tricky.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, Lee is forecast to remain
in a low-shear environment for the next few days, but the slow
motion of the hurricane is likely to cause upwelling and a decrease
in sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane.  Although the
intensity guidance is slightly lower this cycle, the new NHC
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and brings Lee to near
major hurricane strength within the next 24 to 36 hours.  Late in
the period decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear
should impart a weakening trend.

Lee has turned southeastward.  The track models are similar with
the overall forecast scenario of Lee moving slowly southeastward
today, then turning west-southwestward or westward late Monday and
Tuesday as a high pressure ridge builds to the north and northwest
of the hurricane. This ridge is forecast to weaken later in the
week, with Lee turning northward, then northeastward ahead of Maria
as the mid-latitude westerlies dip southward.  There is a large
bifurcation in the guidance models after about 48 hours, due to the
location and timing of recurvature.  The NHC track leans closer to
the ECMWF and latest European ensemble mean, but the track forecast
is of low confidence.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 31.4N  49.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 31.1N  49.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 30.7N  48.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 30.2N  49.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 30.1N  50.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 30.7N  51.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 32.2N  52.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 35.0N  50.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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