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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Forecast Discussion


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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number  49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017

Lee is now over water colder than 20 degrees Celsius and is being
blasted by 35 kt of west-northwesterly shear, and it has not been
producing deep convection for at least the past 12 hours.  The
cyclone has therefore become post tropical, and this will be the
last advisory.  Without any deep convection, subjective and
objective Dvorak numbers have decreased, and the initial intensity
is estimated to be 45 kt.

Lee continues to accelerate northeastward with an initial motion
estimate of 050/44 kt.  Continued acceleration is expected today,
although the global model fields indicate that Lee's circulation
will open up into a trough within the next 6 to 12 hours.  A
12-hour point is provided in the official forecast for continuity's
sake, but Lee will most likely have dissipated by then.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header
FQNT21 EGRR.  These forecasts are available on the web at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin and at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 46.7N  35.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  30/1800Z 49.9N  24.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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