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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion


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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017

Lee continues to hold steady in intensity.  The 10 n mi eye of the
hurricane remains quite distinct, and although the convective
pattern around the eye is fairly symmetric, the cloud tops are not
very cold.  Since the Dvorak classifications remain the same as
earlier, the initial intensity is again held at 80 kt based on a
blend of the subjective and objective numbers.  It is interesting
to note that Lee remains a very compact hurricane, with
tropical-storm-force winds extending only 30 n mi from the center.

Lee remains in a favorable upper-level wind pattern for
strengthening, but SSTs beneath the cyclone are marginal, in part
due to the hurricane moving over its own cool wake.  Lee is expected
to move over slightly warmer waters in a day or so, and that could
allow the system to strengthen a little.  Later in the forecast
period, drier air, a sharp increase in shear, and a track toward
colder water should cause weakening.  Only minor changes were made
to the previous NHC intensity forecast, and this prediction is in
best agreement with the consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

The trough that had been steering Lee to the east or southeast much
of the day on Sunday has now bypassed the system leaving Lee in
weak steering currents.  A ridge is expected to build to the north
of the hurricane by tonight, and that should cause the system to
begin moving west-southwestward or westward.  By mid-week, a
trough is expected to approach the hurricane, and it should
cause the system to accelerate to the northeast over the central
Atlantic in 4 to 5 days.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the west of the previous one to come into better agreement with
the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 31.1N  49.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 30.9N  49.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 30.7N  50.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 30.8N  52.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 31.2N  53.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 32.7N  54.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 36.5N  51.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 42.5N  42.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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