Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Forecast Discussion
WTNT44 KNHC 230236
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Radar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland
between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this
evening. Surface and aircraft reconnaissance data suggest that the
maximum winds had decreased to around 25 kt and that the minimum
pressure was 1004 mb when the depression crossed the coast. The
system has not produced a significant area of organized deep
convection since late this morning and it is therefore being
declared a remnant low at this time. The low is expected to weaken
during the next couple of days while it moves over the Yucatan
Peninsula. If the low emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
dry air and westerly shear are expected to prevent regeneration.
The new NHC forecast follows the last couple runs of the GFS and
call for dissipation in 3 to 4 days.
The cyclone is moving east-southeastward at about 5 kt. A slow
east-southeast to southeast motion is expected to continue during
the next few days. The updated NHC track has been shifted a little
left of the previous track to be closer the latest GFS guidance and
the multi-model consensus.
Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not
directly related to this system.
This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 18.9N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/1200Z 18.8N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/0000Z 18.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1200Z 18.2N 88.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z 17.8N 88.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 17.3N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW