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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 220301
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Satellite and radar data from Mexico indicate that deep convection
associated with the small well-defined low pressure area over the
Bay of Campeche has become organized in bands over the eastern and
northern portions of the circulation during the past few hours.
Thus the low is being designated as a tropical depression.  Earlier
aircraft data supported winds around 30 kt.  The depression is over
warm water and moderate southwesterly shear that has been over the
system is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours.  This
should allow for some strengthening and the depression is expected
to to become a overnight or early Wednesday.  The cyclone should
weaken after it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night.
If the small cyclone survives the passage across the Yucatan
Peninsula, drier air and interaction with a frontal system is likely
to prevent strengthening.  The NHC forecasts calls for degeneration
to a remnant low in 4 or 5 days, but this could occur much sooner.

The depression is moving eastward at about 5 kt.  This general
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours and the
cyclone is forecast to reach the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula late tomorrow or tomorrow night.  After that time, the
track forecast becomes much more uncertain since the small system is
likely to interact with a developing non-tropical low pressure over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  The ECMWF shows the tropical
cyclone merging with the frontal system, while the GFS keeps the
depression a separate system.  For now, the NHC forecast shows a
weak low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in 4 to 5
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 19.4N  92.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 19.4N  92.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 19.4N  91.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 19.4N  90.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 19.4N  88.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 19.0N  86.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 18.5N  84.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0000Z 18.5N  83.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown




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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Oct-2014 03:01:59 UTC