Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTNT44 KNHC 290839
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

Cristobal has begun extratropical transition.  The cloud pattern has
become much less symmetric and central convection has decreased,
along with dry air eroding the southern flank of the cyclone. Dvorak
classifications are a little lower and support an intensity of about
70 kt for this advisory.  The hurricane has now moved across the
north wall of the Gulf Stream over much colder waters.  This
change in environment usually causes a significant weakening of
a tropical cyclone, but in this case strong baroclinic forcing
should delay the cyclone's demise.  Post-tropical Cristobal will
likely remain a powerful extratropical cyclone over the north
Atlantic through early Sunday. Beyond that time, the system is
forecast to merge with another low near southern Greenland
and lose its identity.

The hurricane continues to accelerate, and the motion is now
055/43 kt with Cristobal moving rapidly within the mid-latitude
flow.  Dynamical track guidance indicates that this general motion
will continue during the next couple of days with a decrease
in forward speed and a small leftward turn due to Cristobal
interacting with the low near southern Greenland in the next day or
two.  The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus and the latest guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 42.1N  51.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 45.4N  45.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/0600Z 49.3N  39.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/1800Z 52.9N  32.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/0600Z 59.0N  24.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Blake




Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 29-Aug-2014 08:40:01 UTC