Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTNT44 KNHC 280232

1100 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014

Cristobal has a fairly circular area of deep convection over the
estimated low-level center, with cloud tops occasionally to -70 deg
C.  The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt, in agreement with a
Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  The symmetric appearance of the cloud
pattern suggests that vertical shear has not yet become very
strong, but the latest SHIPS guidance indicates a significant
increase in shear in 18-24 hours.  The hurricane could strengthen
some over the next day or two as a tropical cyclone, or due to
baroclinic processes.  The official intensity forecast is close to
the intensity model consensus through 36 hours, and a little above
it thereafter. Extratropical transition is likely to have occurred
by 48 hours since the global models depict the system as fully
embedded within a frontal zone by that time. Post-tropical Cristobal
is likely to be an intense extratropical cyclone with winds to
hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days.

The hurricane is beginning to accelerate northeastward, and the
motion estimate is 050/17.  The track forecast is unchanged from
the previous advisory.  Cristobal is currently rounding the
northwestern periphery of a subtropical anticyclone over the
west-central Atlantic.  A mid-latitude shortwave trough to the
northwest of the hurricane should cause the hurricane, or its
post-tropical counterpart, to accelerate further and move into the
higher-latitude westerlies.  The official forecast track is in good
agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA.

The track, intensity and wind structure forecasts have been
coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center.


INIT  28/0300Z 34.1N  69.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 36.1N  66.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 39.3N  59.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 43.4N  51.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 47.5N  44.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/0000Z 56.0N  32.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/0000Z 62.5N  25.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/0000Z...ABSORBED

Forecaster Pasch

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Aug-2014 02:32:57 UTC