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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 061753
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016

Based on satellite imagery and surface observations, the risk of
tropical-storm-force winds reaching the coastline appears now to be
minimal.  This special advisory is being issued to discontinue the
remaining coastal tropical storm warnings and to terminate National
Hurricane Center advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine.

There has again been little change in the structure of Hermine since
the last advisory, as it remains a post-tropical low pressure system
with a few small patches of convection located to the south and west
of the center.  Buoy data suggests the circulation is still slowly
decaying, so the initial intensity is now a somewhat uncertain 45
kt.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to continue to weaken
during the next couple of days due to the lack of baroclinic forcing
and cool sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track, and the
new intensity forecast has the winds decreasing below tropical storm
force by 48 hours in agreement with the global models.  After that
time, the system is expected to be absorbed by a new frontal system
moving eastward across the New England States.

After a brief slowing this morning, the center has moved a little
faster and the initial motion is now 265/6.  Other than that, the
track forecast reasoning is unchanged since the last advisory.  A
slow and erratic motion, possibly including a cusp or a loop, is
likely during the next 24 hours.  After that, the cyclone should
move northeastward in advance of the above-mentioned frontal system.
The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous track
after 24 hours, and it is in best agreement with a blend of the GFS
and ECMWF models.

For future information on Hermine, please see products issued by
your local NWS Forecast Office.  Additional information can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the
Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1800Z 39.4N  72.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  07/0000Z 39.3N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  07/1200Z 39.4N  72.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  08/0000Z 39.9N  72.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  08/1200Z 40.5N  71.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven