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Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 091448
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
1100 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017

Satellite images and surface data indicate that Rina has become a
post-tropical cyclone.  The system is embedded within low stratus
clouds, with nippy air temperatures around 45 deg F about a degree
to the northwest of the center.  Interestingly, despite being over
water temperatures around 9 deg C, instability aloft is still
producing some elevated deep convection well northeast of the
center, though this is not indicative of tropical cyclone status.
The initial wind speed will stay at 40 kt, which is the maximum wind
value from a pair of recently received scatterometer passes.  The
cyclone should move rather rapidly to the northeast and
east-northeast over the next day before becoming elongated and
dissipating west of Ireland.  Little change in strength is
anticipated, consistent with the global models.

This is the last advisory on Rina.  Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and available on the Web at
http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

Hopefully Rina will be the finale of the extremely active 2017
Atlantic hurricane season. However that might be wishful thinking
since, of the top 10 most active hurricane seasons before this year,
seven of them still had another tropical storm after today's date.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 47.0N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  10/0000Z 51.0N  39.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  10/1200Z 55.0N  25.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake