Tropical Depression MELISSA Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 302046
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

AS WAS THE CASE WITH INGRID...AND KAREN...WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED
ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE ATLANTIC TO WEAKEN.

MELISSA HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE FEW VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION TODAY...EACH OF WHICH HAS LASTED ONLY A FEW HOURS.  
SINCE MELISSA HAS BEEN UNABLE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING
THE PAST 12-18 HOURS...IT NO LONGER CLASSIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12.  THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE REMNANT LOW...IF IT SURVIVES FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/2100Z 16.3N  34.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 16.7N  35.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 17.7N  38.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 18.9N  40.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 20.5N  42.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN