Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTNT44 KNHC 230236
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Radar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland
between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this
evening.  Surface and aircraft reconnaissance data suggest that the
maximum winds had decreased to around 25 kt and that the minimum
pressure was 1004 mb when the depression crossed the coast.  The
system has not produced a significant area of organized deep
convection since late this morning and it is therefore being
declared a remnant low at this time.  The low is expected to weaken
during the next couple of days while it moves over the Yucatan
Peninsula.  If the low emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
dry air and westerly shear are expected to prevent regeneration.
The new NHC forecast follows the last couple runs of the GFS and
call for dissipation in 3 to 4 days.

The cyclone is moving east-southeastward at about 5 kt. A slow
east-southeast to southeast motion is expected to continue during
the next few days.  The updated NHC track has been shifted a little
left of the previous track to be closer the latest GFS guidance and
the multi-model consensus.

Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not
directly related to this system.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 18.9N  90.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  23/1200Z 18.8N  90.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/0000Z 18.5N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1200Z 18.2N  88.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0000Z 17.8N  88.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z 17.3N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown




Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Oct-2014 02:37:12 UTC