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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 300255

1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew is
strengthening. The estimated minimum pressure from a dropsonde
is 983 mb. The SFMR instrument measured an isolated peak wind of
77 kt in the northwest quadrant near the center. However, the
flight-level winds measured in this mission so far only support an
initial intensity of 70 kt.

The cloud pattern is much better organized than 24 hours ago, and
a recent SSMIS pass showed an eye feature. This was confirmed by the
crew onboard the reconnaissance aircraft which reported a circular
22 n mi eye open to the south.  Images from Curacao radar also show
the center of the cyclone becoming better defined.  However, since
some southwesterly wind shear is still affecting the cyclone, only a
slight strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours.
After that time, the shear is forecast to relax some, and the
overall environment is expected to be more conducive for
intensification. The NHC forecast continues to be above the model
consensus, and is very similar to the forecast issued by my

Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and radar from Curacao indicate
that Matthew is moving toward the west or perhaps just south of due
west at about 12 kt. A strong ridge to the north is forecast to keep
Matthew moving westward across the southern portion of the Central
Caribbean for the next 2 days. After that time, Matthew will be
located on the western side of the high and ahead of a mid-latitude
trough over the Gulf of Mexico.  This steering pattern should force
the cyclone to turn toward the north at about 5 to 7 kt.  The NHC
track forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, which in
fact has not changed very much today, and does not deviate much from
the previous forecast.

Global models, primarily the GFS and the ECMWF, continue to show a
strong hurricane in the vicinity of Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti in 3 or
4 days.


INIT  30/0300Z 14.1N  68.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 14.0N  70.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 13.9N  72.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 13.8N  73.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 14.1N  74.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 16.4N  75.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 19.7N  75.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 23.5N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

Forecaster Avila