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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 221453

1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Satellite images and data from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane
indicate that the depression has not strengthened since yesterday.
The circulation remains well defined but the convection is not well
organized, although new thunderstom activity is currently developing
near the center. The cyclone continues to be affected by moderate
westerly shear which should limit development. However, it is still
expected to become a tropical storm before moving inland over
the Yucatan peninsula where weakening is anticipated. If the
depression emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in about 3
days, there is an opportunity for some strengthening. Most of the
global models, primarily the GFS and the HWRF, forecast a favorable
upper-level environment for the system to redevelop, if the
the cyclone survives its path over land.  On this basis, the NHC
forecast now maintains tropical depression status through five days.

Steering currents are weak, and the depression has been meandering
during the past few hours. The cyclone is located at the base of a
mid-level trough, and most likely the depression will drift eastward
for the next 3 days while on the south side of the trough. Once
in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the trough is forecast to lift
out and a narrow ridge will develop to the north of the cyclone.
This synoptic pattern should keep the cyclone with little motion in
the northwestern Caribbean Sea late in the forecast period. However,
the final portion of the NHC forecast continues to be highly
uncertain, and is based on the blend of the GFS, ECMWF and HWRF
model solutions.

Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not
directly related to the tropical depression.


INIT  22/1500Z 19.4N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 19.3N  91.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 19.0N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/0000Z 18.8N  89.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  24/1200Z 18.5N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  25/1200Z 18.5N  87.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 18.5N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 18.5N  84.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

Forecaster Avila

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Oct-2014 14:54:01 UTC