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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 292150
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH OCEAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern has not become better organized
this afternoon, with the low-level center partially exposed just to
the north of a ragged-looking area of deep convection.  Observations
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft support keeping the intensity
at 30 kt at this time.  Given the system's currently disorganized
appearance, it does not seem likely that there will be much
strengthening in the short term.  Since the cyclone will be moving
over very warm waters and in an environment of moderate westerly
shear, however, gradual intensification is expected during the next
couple of days.  When the system nears the Florida Gulf coast,
increasing upper-level winds should limit strengthening.  The
official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus.

Based on fixes from the NOAA aircraft, the motion is a slow 290/4
kt.  There is little change to the expected steering flow evolution.
In 2-3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to begin digging
over the southeastern United States.  This feature should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn toward the right while it moves over the
eastern Gulf, and to accelerate northeastward across northern
Florida.  The official track forecast is essentially a blend of the
latest ECMWF and GFS predictions.

Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may
be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as
tomorrow morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 24.0N  84.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 24.2N  85.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 24.6N  86.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 25.5N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 26.8N  86.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 29.3N  83.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 32.5N  77.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 35.0N  70.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch