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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 282036
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The low-level center of the depression is now exposed, with the deep
convection diminishing and displaced to the northwest of the center
due to about 15 to 20 kt of southeasterly shear.  Data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that the intensity
remains 30 kt based on the highest believable SFMR winds and peak
flight-level winds of 32 kt.

Given the current satellite presentation and an environment that is
only expected to be marginally conducive for intensification, only
modest strengthening is shown in the official forecast, with the
depression expected to become a tropical storm in the next day or
two.  After that time the shear should increase as the system
accelerates northeastward, and the global models show the cyclone
being absorbed by a front in about 4 days.  The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the intensity consensus through 48 hours and a
little below it at 72 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 280/08.  While the synoptic reasoning
has not changed, the sheared state of the cyclone could lead to some
erratic motion if it remains a shallow system. Assuming deep
convection returns, the cyclone is expected to gradually recurve
during the next 48 to 72 hours, with a slow northwestward motion
expected in 24 to 48 hours, bringing the center just offshore of the
Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Given the uncertainty in the
intensity forecast and the timing of the approach to the coast, a
tropical storm watch is not being issued at this time, but one may
be required later tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 31.8N  70.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 32.2N  72.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 33.0N  73.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 33.7N  74.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 34.3N  75.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 36.8N  72.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan