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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 302049
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Satellite images indicate that the depression remains disorganized.
The low- and mid-level centers are not well aligned, with
convection continuing only sporadically near the center.  The
initial wind speed remains 30 kt.  Despite the lack of
strengthening, the environment appears conducive for some
intensification eventually over the next couple of days while the
depression moves near the Gulf Stream in light-to-moderate shear.
The intensity forecast is reduced a little in the short term to
account for the current disorganized structure, then no change was
made to the remainder of the intensity forecast. The system should
become an extratropical low in 2 or 3 days before the cyclone
dissipates within a frontal zone.

The cyclone has been drifting recently, but it should start a slow
north-northeastward motion by tonight as it enters the mid-latitude
westerlies.  The mid-latitude flow then increases, which should
cause the depression to accelerate northeastward.  Model guidance is
tightly clustered, and little change was made to the previous
forecast.

Model guidance indicates the system is nearing its closest point of
approach to the Outer Banks.  We have elected to continue the
Tropical Storm Warning for this advisory, but this could be lowered
tonight if a more consistent motion away from the coast becomes
established.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 34.4N  75.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 35.0N  74.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 36.3N  72.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 38.3N  69.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 41.0N  63.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 45.0N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake