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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 020850
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
500 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

Bertha is a disorganized tropical cyclone, but based on earlier
reconnaissance aircraft data, it is still producing winds of 40 to
45 knots.  Satellite data show that the low-level center is exposed
with most of the showers and squalls to the north and east. San Juan
Puerto Rico radar also shows the circulation associated with the
cyclone.  Another plane will be investigating Bertha in a few hours.
The shear has not decreased, but global models insist on forecasting
a little more conducive upper-level environment in 24 hours or so.
If the cyclone survives the current shear, and the interaction with
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, it could strengthen slightly over the
open Atlantic as indicated in the NHC forecast. In fact, this is the
solution of the SHIPS and HWRF models.

Bertha continues to be embedded within a strong easterly flow south
of the subtropical ridge, and the cyclone is racing toward the
west-northwest of 295 degrees at about 19 knots. However, in about
24 to 36 hours, Bertha will reach the southwestern edge of
the ridge and will likely slow down a little. The cyclone will then
move northward and northeastward over the Atlantic, steered by the
southerly flow between the ridge and a trough over the eastern
United States. This is the solution of most of the dynamical models
which indeed are in pretty good agreement. The NHC forecast follows
the multi-model consensus and is very similar to the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 16.3N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 17.8N  67.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 20.0N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 22.5N  72.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 25.0N  73.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 31.0N  72.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 36.0N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 40.0N  58.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila




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Page last modified: Saturday, 02-Aug-2014 08:51:39 UTC