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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 290254
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Satellite imagery shows that Tropical Depression Eight is currently
comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds accompanied by minimal
shower activity.  This structure is due to the impacts of 20-25 kt
of southeasterly vertical wind shear and abundant mid- to
upper-level dry air seen in water vapor imagery.  Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 30 kt, so that is the
initial intensity for this advisory.

The initial motion is 285/9.  For the next 48 hours, the depression
is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina coast.
After that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving through
the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the ridge and
cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the westerlies.  The
track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new
track forecast lies near the consensus models through 48 hours.

The dynamical models forecast the shear to decrease during the
next 48 hours and for the depression to move into a more moist
environment.  Based on this, the intensity guidance is showing
strengthening as the system approaches the coast of North Carolina.
The intensity forecast also shows some strengthening, but it is on
the low side of the guidance envelope due to uncertainty about
whether the environment will become as favorable as the models are
suggesting.  After recurvature, the cyclone is forecast to merge
with a cold front and dissipate after 72 hours.

The 48 hour position is about 35 n mi from Cape Hatteras.  This,
combined with the various uncertainties in the forecast, requires a
tropical storm watch for portions of the North Carolina coast at
this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 32.2N  72.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 32.8N  73.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 33.5N  74.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 34.1N  75.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 34.9N  75.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 37.6N  71.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven