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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 312035
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
500 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

This depression has been a challenging cyclone.  After the earlier
apparent improvement in the cloud pattern, recent satellite images
indicate the system has actually become less organized.  While there
is a broken band in the eastern semicircle, the depression looks
elongated, with a less well-defined center.  The initial wind speed
is reduced to 25 kt on this advisory, which is backed up by ASCAT
data of 20 to 25 kt.

I'm beginning to think that the long-forecast intensification is not
going to occur with this depression.  Other than persistence, this
idea is supported by the higher shear values in the recent SHIPS and
global model guidance.  While I'm not ready to totally abandon any
strengthening, the new NHC forecast is reduced 5 to 10 kt from
the previous one and is below the model consensus.  The cyclone
should become extratropical within 2 days, and be absorbed within a
larger frontal zone in 3 days.  An alternative, but realistic,
scenario, is that the cyclone becomes a remnant low tomorrow due to
marginal environmental conditions causing a lack of organized deep
convection.

The cyclone is moving northeastward at about 14 kt. It should
continue to accelerate to the northeast within the southwesterly
flow ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough.  No significant
change to the previous forecast was made.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 36.3N  71.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 37.7N  69.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 39.9N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 42.0N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  02/1800Z 44.0N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake