000
WTNT43 KNHC 042035
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025
 
The wind circulation associated with the low pressure area east of
the coast of north Florida has become stronger, with aircraft and
scatterometer data indicating a well-defined circulation with
maximum winds near 30 kt and a radius of maximum wind of about
80-90 n mi. The system has also developed persistent convection east
and southeast of the center. Based on these developments,
advisories are being started on Tropical Depression Three. The
cyclone is currently being affected by 20-25 kt of southwesterly
shear caused by a mid- to upper-level trough not far to the west.
 
The initial motion is uncertain due to some reformation of the
center, with the best estimate of 360/2 kt.  During the next 24 h,
the cyclone should move slowly north-northwestward on the northeast
side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern
Gulf.  After that time, the system should be steered northward with
a gradual increase in forward speed.  This motion should bring the
center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning.  A
generally northward motion should then continue until the system
dissipates over land.  While the guidance generally agrees with this
scenario, there is considerable spread in both the forecast
direction and speed, with the HWRF being a notable right outlier.
The forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS and the HCCA
corrected consensus model.
 
The current shear is expected to diminish on Saturday as the
upper-level trough moves westward away from the cyclone and the
upper-level winds become southerly. However, the upper-level winds
are forecast to become convergent, which may limit the amount of
convection the system produces.  Most of the guidance shows some
development as the system approaches the coast, so the intensity
forecast calls for modest strengthening to a tropical storm before
the cyclone makes landfall. This forecast is a little below the
intensity consensus.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding from Saturday through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash
flooding could occur within more urbanized areas along the coastal
plain of the Carolinas.
 
3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 30.8N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 31.3N  79.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 31.7N  79.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 32.4N  80.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 33.7N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  07/0600Z 35.0N  79.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven