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Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 072020
TCDAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016

Colin is now being analyzed as a fully extratropical cyclone with
frontal features.  The gusty winds and rainfall has cleared the
coast of North Carolina; therefore this will be the final NHC
advisory on this system.  The low's intensity remains 50 kt, which
is in agreement with an earlier ASCAT pass that showed a large area
of 40-45 kt winds well to the southeast of the center.  The
extratropical cyclone will likely deepen tonight due to baroclinic
energetics, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday
while the low moves over the North Atlantic.  The forecast
intensities and wind radii are based on guidance provided by the
Ocean Prediction Center.

The cyclone is racing northeastward at about 35 kt, and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.
After that time, the low should decelerate as it moves moves around
a couple of larger extratropical lows over the North Atlantic.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Colin.  Future information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 36.5N  72.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  08/0600Z 39.5N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  08/1800Z 43.5N  56.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/0600Z 46.5N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/1800Z 48.0N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/1800Z 53.0N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/1800Z...Absorbed

$$
Forecaster Brown