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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 230834

500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014

The small tropical depression has maintained an area of deep
convection overnight. However, recent microwave imagery indicates
that the convection is not particularly well organized.  An AMSR2
image from 0435 UTC also shows that the circulation may be losing
definition.  The depression is currently passing just south of
NOAA Buoy 41040 which has recently reported a peak one-minute
wind of 27 kt and a minimum pressure of 1013.8 mb.  Based on a TAFB
Dvorak classification and the buoy observations, the initial wind
speed remains 30 kt.

The environment ahead of the depression is forecast to become even
more hostile than it has been, due to increasing vertical shear and
dry air.  These conditions should cause the depression to weaken
during the next day or so, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate
into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours.  All of the
dynamical models show the depression becoming an open trough before
reaching the Lesser Antilles, and it is quite possible that the
cyclone will dissipate sooner than shown below.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 17 kt.  The
depression or its remnants will continue moving west-northwestward
to westward with some increase in forward speed during the next day
or so.  The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and is near the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS models.


INIT  23/0900Z 13.9N  53.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 14.3N  56.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 14.9N  59.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 15.4N  64.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 23-Jul-2014 08:35:21 UTC