000
WTNT42 KNHC 282055
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The area of low pressure that entered in the Bay of Campeche early 
this morning (Invest 91L) has slowly improved in organization 
through the day. Convection had been mostly bursting on the southern 
portion of the circulation, but is more recently starting to fill in 
over the northern side. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission 
has been sampling the system this afternoon, and they were able to 
close off a circulation center, albeit with not a whole lot of wind. 
This wind field matches the satellite-derived scatterometer wind 
data at 1619 UTC which showed a closed circulation, but with peak 
winds of only 24 kt. However, given the improvement in convective 
organization with the well-defined circulation noted, advisories are 
being initiated on Tropical Depression Two this afternoon, with 
maximum sustained winds of 25 kt, matching the T1.5/25-kt estimate 
provided by TAFB.

The initial motion of the tropical depression appears to be off to 
the west-northwest at 290/6 kt. This motion with a slight bend a 
little more northward is expected through the weekend until the 
system moves inland over mainland Mexico just after 36 h. The track 
guidance overall appears to be in pretty good agreement, though with 
the ECMWF on the south end and GFS on the north end of the guidance 
envelope. The initial NHC track forecast splits the difference and 
is quite close to the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

The depression's wind field is still somewhat broad and in the 
formative stages. In addition, the environmental conditions are not 
ideal, with some 20-25 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear 
diagnosed by SHIPS guidance that should prevent more robust 
intensification of this cyclone. On the other hand, sea-surface 
temperatures are fairly warm (28-29 C) and there is ample mid-level 
moisture to sustain the convective activity. Thus, some slow 
intensification seems likely, and the intensity forecast shows the 
depression becoming a tropical storm before making landfall in 
Mexico. However, once inland after 36 h, the system should quickly 
weaken and dissipate by the early portion of next week over the 
rugged high terrain of central Mexico. This intensity forecast is 
largely in good agreement with the consensus aid HCCA and the most 
recent HWRF hurricane-regional model run. 

Given the forecast for the depression to become a tropical storm 
before landfall, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical 
Storm Warning for a portion of their eastern Gulf coastline. 

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Conditions are expected on Sunday for portions of 
the Gulf coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in 
effect.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two will 
impact portions of northeastern Mexico. This rainfall may produce 
isolated flash and urban flooding.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 19.3N  94.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 19.7N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 20.8N  96.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 21.9N  97.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 22.1N  98.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin