Tropical Storm LAURA Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 011438
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

ALTHOUGH A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION REMAINS...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
DEEP CONVECTION FOR LAURA TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  I RATHER LIKE THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTER'S TERM POST-TROPICAL...WHICH SIMPLY MEANS NO
LONGER TROPICAL...TO DESCRIBE WHAT LAURA HAS BECOME. THERE IS NOT
REALLY ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF FRONTAL STRUCTURE YET TO CONSIDER LAURA
EXTRATROPICAL IN THE TRADITIONAL SENSE...AND SOME USERS MIGHT INFER
A WEAK SYSTEM IF WE USED THE TERM REMNANT LOW...WHICH IS
MOST-COMMONLY APPLIED TO DECAYING SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
BASIN.  

A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN
NEAR 40 KT...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT HIGHER. A TRANSITION TO A FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME REINVIGORATION OF THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT
OF LAURA IN THREE OR FOUR DAYS. OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...
SHOWS THE CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED AND DISSIPATING WITHIN A
FRONTAL ZONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR AN EXPANSION OF
THE WIND RADII IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...BUT FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN CARRYING A TRACK ONLY OUT TO 72
HOURS.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/1500Z 46.5N  46.5W    40 KT...POST-TROPICAL
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 48.9N  45.6W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 52.2N  43.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 55.0N  39.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 56.0N  33.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 56.5N  20.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     05/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN