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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT42 KNHC 300231
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Tropical Depression Bonnie has been meandering over the Low Country
of South Carolina this evening.  Satellite and radar data indicate
that the associated showers and thunderstorms have been shrinking
in coverage and are primarily confined to the western side of the
circulation over portions of South Carolina, with some outer
bands over eastern North Carolina.  The circulation of the system
has become a little less defined this evening with some evidence of
multiple vortices, and the overall appearance of the cyclone is
quite ragged. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt, which is a
little higher than reports from the nearby surface observations.

Bonnie has not moved much since the previous advisory, and the
latest initial motion estimate is a south-southeastward drift,
or 160/1 kt.  The depression should move slowly northeastward or
east-northeastward on Monday when a shortwave trough approaches
the cyclone.  After that time, a slightly faster northeastward or
east-northeastward motion is predicted while Bonnie moves along
the northwestern side of a subtropical high pressure system.  This
steering pattern should take the depression, or its remnants,
across the coastline of the Carolinas during the next few days and
then offshore into the western Atlantic Ocean.  The new track
forecast has been adjusted a little to the east of the previous one
to come into better agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF
consensus.

Land interaction during the next few days combined with persistent
southerly shear, dry air, and cool waters along the forecast track
should prevent Bonnie from restrengthening.  The NHC intensity
forecast calls for a steady state system through the forecast
period, but Bonnie is likely to lose its convective organization and
become a remnant low in about two days, or perhaps sooner. Another
possibility, however, is that the circulation of the system opens
into a trough before it becomes a remnant low.

The primary concern from Bonnie continues to be locally heavy
rainfall. Isolated rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches have been
reported in portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina.
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 32.8N  80.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  30/1200Z 33.1N  79.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  31/0000Z 33.5N  79.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 36H  31/1200Z 33.9N  78.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  01/0000Z 34.4N  77.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/0000Z 35.4N  76.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/0000Z 37.0N  74.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/0000Z 38.5N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi