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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT42 KNHC 292033
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The much anticipated reduction in Bonnie's forward motion appears to
have occurred this afternoon.  Since the previous advisory, the
tropical cyclone jogged westward and has become nearly stationary
just northwest of Charleston, South Carolina.  The highest wind
observations this afternoon have been 25-30 kt at the Fort Pulaski
C-Man site near the Georgia/South Carolina border around 1700 UTC.
Since the time, the highest wind reports have been 20-25 kt over
water, and the initial wind speed has been reduced to 25 kt for this
advisory.

Bonnie is expected to meander near the south-central coast of South
Carolina overnight, before beginning a northeastward motion on
Monday around the northwestern portion of a low- to mid-level ridge
over the western Atlantic.  In 2 to 3 days, a slightly faster
northeastward or east-northeastward motion is forecast as the low-
to mid-level westerly flow off the Mid-Atlantic coast strengthens.
The global models are in generally good agreement of this scenario,
but there are some forward speed differences, especially beyond 72
hours.  The NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is
once again close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus.

Since a portion of the circulation is expected to remain over water
during the next few days, little change in strength is expected.
After exiting the coast of North Carolina in about 72 hours, the
cyclone will be moving over cool waters, which should cause Bonnie
to become post-tropical.

Locally heavy rains continue to be the primary concern from Bonnie.
Isolated rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches have already been
reported in portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 33.0N  80.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  30/0600Z 33.2N  80.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/1800Z 33.7N  79.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  31/0600Z 34.0N  78.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  31/1800Z 34.4N  78.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  01/1800Z 35.4N  76.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/1800Z 37.0N  74.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/1800Z 38.5N  71.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown