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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT42 KNHC 291444
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Most of the deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone
became separated from the center overnight, and Bonnie weakened to a
tropical depression before reaching the south-central coast of South
Carolina. Aircraft data indicate that Bonnie made landfall just east
of Charleston near the Isle of Palms around 1230 UTC.

The tropical cyclone has continued to move faster than expected,
with an initial motion estimate of 360/8 kt.  The global models
insist that a reduction in forward speed will occur today while the
cyclone moves around the northwestern portion of a low- to mid-level
ridge over the western Atlantic.  As a result of the faster forward
motion, the NHC forecast track has been adjusted northward
accordingly, and now shows the center moving farther inland during
the next day or so.  After 48 hours, a slightly faster northeastward
motion is expected to begin.  The updated NHC track is close to the
GFS/ECMWF consensus.

Bonnie is forecast to weaken some during the next 12 to 24 hours,
but little change in strength is expected after that time since a
portion of the circulation could be over water. A track farther
inland than anticipated would result in a faster rate of weakening,
and Bonnie would become a remnant low sooner in this scenario.

The primary impact from Bonnie will continue to be locally heavy
rainfall, which is occurring over much of eastern Georgia, and
portions of the Carolinas.  These rains will gradually spread
northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic region during the next couple
of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 33.2N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 33.6N  79.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 34.0N  79.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  31/0000Z 34.1N  79.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  31/1200Z 34.1N  78.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  01/1200Z 35.3N  76.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/1200Z 36.5N  74.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/1200Z 38.5N  72.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown