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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT42 KNHC 272057
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
500 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low
pressure system located about 400 n mi southeast of Charleston,
South Carolina, indicated that the system has developed a
well-defined closed circulation.  With this afternoon's increase in
convection near the center, the system is now a tropical cyclone
and advisories have been initiated.  The strongest reliable SFMR
surface wind measured was 30 kt, and that is the intensity set for
this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
to the northeast of the depression is forecast to remain
oriented northwest-southeast across the Carolinas through 36 hours
or so, which should keep the depression moving in a general
west-northwestward direction during that time. By 48 hours, however,
a mid-level shortwave trough ejecting northeastward out of the
south-central United States is forecast to erode the ridge,
resulting in a significant weakening of the steering currents and a
sharp decrease in forward speed as the cyclone is approaching the
coast of South Carolina. By day 3 and beyond, the cyclone is
forecast to move slowly northeastward or eastward off of the coast
of North Carolina as a weakening system. The models are in good
agreement on this track scenario, with only small differences in
forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the consensus
model TVCN and has incorporated the slightly slower speed of the
ECMWF model.

The depression will be moving over somewhat cooler sea surface
temperatures of near 25C during the next 24 hours or so before
moving over the warmer Gulfstream by 36 hours, where SSTs are
27C-28C.  Over the next day or so, the cyclone will also be moving
into weaker vertical wind shear conditions. The net result is
expected to be slow strengthening to tropical storm status prior to
landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS model
through 48 hours, and then closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model
after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 28.5N  74.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 29.5N  76.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 30.7N  78.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 32.0N  79.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 32.8N  80.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/1800Z 33.6N  78.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  31/1800Z 34.0N  77.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1800Z 34.7N  75.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart