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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 220832

500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

There has been little change in the appearance of the depression in
overnight infrared satellite imagery.  The cyclone continues to
produce a small area of convection that is organized into a band
over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. The
initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is
supported by a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 2.0.

As previous advisories have noted, the environment ahead of the
depression does not favor strengthening.  Dry air and an increase in
shear are expected to cause weakening during the next day or two,
and all of the dynamical models show the system becoming a trough of
low pressure by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles.  The NHC
forecast follows this reasoning and calls for dissipation in 2 to
3 days.

The center of the depression has been difficult to locate overnight,
but it appears to still be moving westward or 280 degrees at 14 kt.
The depression or its remnants are forecast to continue moving
westward to west-northwestward to the south of a strong deep-layer
ridge during the next few days.  The track guidance is tightly
clustered, but has shifted southward this cycle.  As a result, the
new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory.


INIT  22/0900Z 12.2N  46.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 12.5N  48.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 13.0N  51.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 13.5N  54.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 14.5N  58.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 22-Jul-2014 08:32:43 UTC