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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 180234
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014

Edouard is maintaining its strength this evening despite being over
cool waters.  Satellite pictures indicate that deep convection in
the inner-core region has increased a little during the past few
hours, and microwave images continue to show concentric eyewalls.
The initial intensity is held at 75 kt, which is in agreement with
the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.  Although the
hurricane has not yet weakened, very cold water along the
expected track along with a substantial increase in westerly shear
should cause a steady weakening during the next couple of days.  The
NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and
lies in the middle of the guidance envelope.  Post-tropical
transition is expected to occur in 36 to 48 hours, when Edouard is
forecast to be over waters around 23 C.

The hurricane is racing to the east-northeast in the strong
mid-latitude flow across the central Atlantic, with the initial
motion estimated to be 060/26.  A turn to the east and then
southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next few days when the cyclone is steered by the weaker flow
between a subtropical ridge to its southwest and a deep-layer low
to its northeast.  The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast
during the post-tropical phase is close to the guidance provided by
NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 38.7N  48.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 39.8N  44.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 40.2N  40.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 40.1N  38.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 40.0N  36.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  21/0000Z 39.4N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  22/0000Z 37.0N  29.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




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Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Sep-2014 02:34:55 UTC