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Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 192031
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

Satellite imagery indicates that Edouard consists of a large but
tight swirl of low-level clouds.  Since the cyclone has been absent
any deep convection for more than 12 hours, Edouard is being
declared a post-tropical cyclone at this time.  A blend of the 1800
UTC TAFB Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers suggests an initial intensity
of 35 kt, which is in basic agreement with a morning ASCAT pass.
Post-tropical cyclone Edouard should continue moving over cooler
waters and in an environment of strong northwesterly wind shear.
Thus, additional weakening is expected during the next day or so
prior to Edouard becoming extratropical in about 36 hours when it
merges with a front.

Although the center of the cyclone jogged southeastward earlier this
morning, it has since resumed an eastward motion at a faster forward
speed or 090/06.  Now a shallow feature, Edouard should accelerate
eastward on the north side of a low-level ridge of high pressure
during the next 24 hours.  The track should then bend southeastward
and southward around the flow associated with a mid-latitude cyclone
over the northeastern Atlantic. The track forecast is basically an
update of the previous one, only shifted slightly to the left to be
in line with the TVCA multi-model consensus.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Edouard. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 39.5N  37.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  20/0600Z 39.4N  36.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  20/1800Z 39.0N  33.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0600Z 38.0N  31.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1800Z 36.3N  30.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman




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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Sep-2014 20:32:13 UTC