Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTNT41 KNHC 300847

500 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

The convective cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has continued
to improve this early morning with the development of a small CDO
feature and a tightly curved band in the western and southern
quadrants. A 0542 UTC SSMI/S microwave satellite image further
indicated that the convective band wraps almost completely around a
primitive mid-level eye feature. The initial intensity is raised to
35 kt based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, and
this intensity could be conservative based on the impressive SSMI/S
satellite signature. This makes Fred only the fourth Atlantic
tropical storm to form east of 19W longitude in NHC's database.

The initial motion remains 305/10 kt. There is no change to the
previous forecast track reasoning. Fred is expected to move
northwestward toward a weakness just northwest of the Cape Verde
Islands within a deep-layer subtropical ridge. The mid-tropospheric
trough that is responsible for the weakness is forecast by the
global and regional models to shift eastward over the next 24-36
hours, which should allow the ridge to build back in, forcing Fred
on a west-northwestward to westward track after 48-72 hours. The
latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous
forecast track, so the new track forecast is essentially just an
update of the previous advisory, and lies close to the GFEX and TVCA
consensus model solutions.

Fred is expected to remain in favorable environmental and oceanic
conditions for the next 36 hours, characterized by vertical wind
shear less than 10 kt, mid-level humidity values greater than 70
percent, and sea-surface temperatures of 27.5-28 deg C. The main
inhibiting factor is decreasing instability ahead of the cyclone
after 24 hours. However, there should still be enough available
instability to support deep convection that will allow at least
steady strengthening through 36 hours to occur, and Fred could still
reach hurricane status before or while it moves through the Cape
Verde Islands in 36 hours or so. After 48 hours, southwesterly
vertical wind shear is expected to begin affecting the cyclone while
Fred is moving over sub-27C SSTs. These less favorable conditions
should combine to induce a gradual weakening trend. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the IVCN
intensity consensus model.


INIT  30/0900Z 12.4N  18.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 13.4N  20.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 14.6N  22.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 16.0N  23.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 17.0N  25.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 18.5N  29.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 19.2N  34.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 19.8N  38.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

Forecaster Stewart

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 30-Aug-2015 08:47:33 UTC