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Tropical Depression Nate Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 081450
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Nate Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

The center of Nate continues to move quickly north-northeastward
over central Alabama.  Moderate westerly shear has caused most of
the deep convection and heavy rainfall to be displaced to the east
and northeast of the center, and surface observations show that
Nate has continued to rapidly weaken.  Wind gusts to tropical-storm
strength are still occurring over portions of Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle, but there are no recent reports of sustained
tropical-storm-force winds.  Therefore, Nate is now a 30-kt
tropical depression.  Nate is expected to become a remnant low on
Monday, and extratropical by Tuesday before it is absorbed by
frontal system.  The intensity foreast keeps the wind speed around
30 kt during the next 48 hours, since winds are expected to increase
along the mid-Atlantic coast and southern New England coast on
Monday when the post-tropical low approaches that area.

Nate should continue to move quickly north-northeastward to
northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies during the
next 24 to 36 hours.  The cyclone is forecast to turn
east-northeastward by Tuesday before it merges with the frontal
system.

This is the last NHC advisory on Nate.  Heavy rainfall associated
with Nate is expected to spread over the Tennessee Valley, the
southern and central Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley during the
next day or so.  Future information on Nate system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 5 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.  These advisories will
continue as long as Nate poses a flooding threat to the U.S.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for
flash flooding in these areas.

2. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which
will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.

3. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are expected over portions of
the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Georgia through this afternoon.

4. Persistent onshore flow will keep water levels elevated along
portions of the northern Gulf coast through today. See products
issues by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for
additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 33.1N  87.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  09/0000Z 36.2N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/1200Z 40.1N  79.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  10/0000Z 43.1N  72.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/1200Z 45.0N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
Forecaster Brown