Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTNT41 KNHC 031434

1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015

As anticipated, a surge of strong upper-level westerly winds removed
most of the convection from Fred overnight, and again the cyclone
consists of a very vigorous swirl of low clouds. Just like
yesterday, a few new convective cells are redeveloping to the north
of the center. Assuming that the winds are gradually decaying, the
initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The strong upper-level
winds affecting Fred are forecast to continue creating a very
hostile environment for the cyclone. Consequently, the NHC forecast
calls for Fred to become a remnant low in about 12 to 24 hours. By
the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not dissipated, models
are showing less shear. This combined with the presence of anomalous
warm waters in the North Atlantic, will provide a small opportunity
for Fred to redevelop some as indicated in the NHC forecast.

A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic
is steering Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt.
In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward the
northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will then recurve
toward the northeast around the ridge. Although most of the track
models provided this solution, the NHC forecast is very close to the
consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models.


INIT  03/1500Z 21.5N  34.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 21.9N  35.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 22.3N  37.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 22.6N  38.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 23.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z 25.0N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z 27.5N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1200Z 30.5N  38.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Forecaster Avila

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 03-Sep-2015 14:34:29 UTC