Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTNT41 KNHC 310240
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

Fred has been maintaining strong convection in its CDO, and
microwave data show a well-defined inner core.  Subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates have not increased over the
past several hours, however.  The current intensity estimate is 60
kt, which is slightly above the most recent ADT values from
UW-CIMSS.  Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the tropical
cyclone.  The system should remain over marginally warm sea surface
temperatures with moderate vertical shear for the next day or so,
and sounding data from Sal in the Cape Verde Islands indicate that
the Saharan Air Layer is not very prominent ahead of Fred.  Given
these conducive factors in the short term, the storm is likely to
strengthen into a hurricane overnight.  By 36 hours, vertical shear
is forecast to increase significantly and a weakening trend should
be underway by that time.  Late in the forecast period, model
guidance shows very dry low- to mid-level air affecting Fred with
the shear remaining strong.  This should result in the cyclone
degenerating to a depression by the end of the period.  The official
intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS and LGEM guidance and is
the same as the previous one.

Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery show that Fred
continues on its northwestward trek.  The track forecast reasoning
is unchanged from the previous package.  For the next few days,
a weakening mid-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic
should result in the tropical cyclone continuing northwestward with
decreasing forward speed.  Late in the forecast period, the ridge
builds westward a bit and this, along with the weakening cyclone
responding more to the lower-level flow, is likely to result in a
turn to the left with time.  The official track forecast is close to
a consensus of the ECMWF and GFS solutions and lies on the southern
side of the guidance suite.  This is basically an update of the
previous NHC track prediction.

Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0300Z 15.3N  22.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 16.2N  23.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 17.5N  25.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 18.8N  27.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 19.6N  29.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 20.8N  32.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 22.0N  36.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 23.0N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Aug-2015 02:40:56 UTC