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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 160845
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

Convective cloud tops within Edouard's eyewall have occasionally
been as cold as about -75C, but the eye has actually cooled during
the past few hours.  In addition, an 0614 UTC TRMM pass showed that
the hurricane's eyewall is partially open on the north side.  The
Dvorak final-T estimate from TAFB increased to T5.5/102 kt but
decreased to T4.5/77 kt from SAB, while the CIMSS ADT is holding
steady near T5.6/105 kt.  Due to the discrepancy between the various
estimates, the initial intensity is being held at 95 kt.

Analyses from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that about 15
kt of southeasterly shear continues to affect Edouard.  The shear
is expected to decrease between 12-36 hours, and since waters will
be warmer than 26C during that period, the hurricane still has a
chance to strengthen a bit.  The intensity guidance has decreased,
with none of the usual hurricane models explicitly showing Edouard
reaching major hurricane strength.  However, given the improving
environment, the NHC intensity forecast still allows for the
possibility of a major hurricane in the next 12-24 hours.  After
that time, Edouard is expected to weaken quickly due to colder water
and increasing vertical shear.  The forecast continues to show
Edouard becoming post-tropical by day 4, but the cyclone may begin
to struggle to maintain organized deep convection as early as day 3
while it's over 22C water.

The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/11 kt.  Edouard
is located to the west of a mid-tropospheric high and will turn
northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during
the next 24-36 hours.  An eastward acceleration is expected by 48
hours, but then the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and
slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a
deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores.  The track guidance
continues to be tightly clustered, and the updated NHC forecast
has only been nudged slightly westward during the first 48 hours to
be closer to the multi-model consensus TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 30.2N  57.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 31.7N  57.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 34.3N  56.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 37.1N  52.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 39.5N  48.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 41.3N  39.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 40.5N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/0600Z 38.5N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg




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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2014 08:45:41 UTC