Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Hurricane FRED Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTNT41 KNHC 310836

500 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015

Fred's overall cloud pattern has only changed slightly since the
previous advisory. However, the inner-core convection has increased
markedly, including the development of a well-defined, vertically
deep, 15 n mi diameter eye as noted in recent AMSR and AMSU passive
microwave satellite data. Upper-level outflow is good in all
quadrants. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based
on a blend of satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB,
a UW-CIMSS ADT value of T4.4/75 kt, and a NHC objective Dvorak
T-number of T4.5/77 kt.

Fred has maintained a steady northwestward motion but has slowed
down some, and is now moving 305/10 kt. The track forecast and
rationale remain unchanged from the previous advisory. Water
vapor-derived winds indicate that the break in the subtropical ridge
to the northwest of the Cape Verde Islands is beginning to fill in
based on previous southwesterly winds now having been replaced by
east-northeasterly mid- to upper-level winds. Fred is expected to
continue its northwestward motion for the next 12-24 hours and pass
near or over the Cape Verde Islands of Boa Vista this morning, and
over or near Sao Nicolau, Sao Vicente, and Santo Antao late this
afternoon and into tonight. As the ridge builds steadily westward to
the north of Fred, the hurricane should gradually turn toward the
west-northwest by 36 hours and beyond. This will bring the cyclone
over progressively cooler waters and into increasing vertical wind
shear conditions. The official forecast track is just an update of
the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus of the
GFS and ECMWF model tracks.

The vertical shear is expected to remain quite low at less than
5 kt for the next 12 hours as Fred is passing through the Cape Verde
Islands archipelago. With ocean temperatures remaining above 27 deg
C during that time, some additional strengthening is possible. After
the hurricane clears the Cape Verde Islands, however, the
combination of decreasing SSTs, decreasing mid-level moisture, and
increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear should induce a
gradual weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN consensus model
through 36 hours, and is lower than IVCN from 48-120 hours.

Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.


INIT  31/0900Z 15.6N  22.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 16.6N  24.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 17.9N  26.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 19.0N  28.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 19.7N  29.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 20.8N  33.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 22.0N  36.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 23.0N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

Forecaster Stewart

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Aug-2015 08:36:59 UTC