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Hurricane NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 070848
PWSEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
0900 UTC TUE OCT 07 2008
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 3 26
TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 2 3 17 35
TROPICAL STORM 18 24 23 31 45 61 36
HURRICANE 82 76 76 67 51 19 3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 77 60 50 42 37 17 3
HUR CAT 2 4 13 19 18 10 2 X
HUR CAT 3 1 3 6 7 4 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 75KT 80KT 80KT 80KT 70KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 4(21)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 5(20)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 7(20)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 17(20) 21(41) 15(56) 2(58) X(58)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 1(22) X(22)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 21(32) 9(41) 1(42)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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