Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
FOPZ14 KNHC 240847
PWSEP4

HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017               
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 105W       34 83  13(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
15N 105W       50 18  45(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
15N 105W       64  3  29(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 110W       34  X   1( 1)  15(16)  42(58)   5(63)   1(64)   X(64)
15N 110W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)
15N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)

20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)   1(15)   1(16)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  33(48)   2(50)   X(50)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   X(15)   X(15)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  56(57)  21(78)   1(79)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)  21(47)   1(48)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  16(28)   1(29)

15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   9(30)   1(31)
15N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
15N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  24(46)   4(50)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   2(21)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)

25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)
15N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
15N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)  24(44)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH