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Tropical Storm ULIKA Wind Speed Probabilities


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000
FOPZ14 KNHC 272033
PWSEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 27 2016                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ULIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 135W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

15N 140W       34  1  24(25)  17(42)   3(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)
15N 140W       50  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
15N 140W       64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)

20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN