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Tropical Depression NINE-E Wind Speed Probabilities


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000
FOPZ14 KNHC 221453
PWSEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017               
1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

10N 105W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)

15N 105W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  35(38)  30(68)   1(69)   X(69)
15N 105W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  23(30)   X(30)   X(30)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

10N 100W       34 13  11(24)   1(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)

15N 100W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)

10N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

15N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  30(31)  33(64)   3(67)
15N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  26(33)   2(35)
15N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   1(19)

20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   7(23)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  29(32)  11(43)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   7(18)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  37(49)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)

15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  18(28)
15N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)
15N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  28(33)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA