Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane LESTER Wind Speed Probabilities


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 311437
PWSEP3

HURRICANE LESTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016               
1500 UTC WED AUG 31 2016                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 140W       34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 140W       34  4   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

15N 145W       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

20N 145W       34  X   3( 3)  53(56)  14(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)  15(15)  12(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  60(76)   1(77)   X(77)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  38(40)   1(41)   X(41)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   1(18)   X(18)

25N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  65(71)   1(72)   X(72)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  33(33)   1(34)   X(34)
20N 151W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)

BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   2(19)   X(19)
BUOY 51004     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)  18(49)   X(49)
20N 154W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)   X(16)
20N 154W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  20(36)   1(37)
HILO           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)
HILO           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  21(31)   1(32)
BRADSHAW AAF   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)
BRADSHAW AAF   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   1(20)
SOUTH POINT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
SOUTH POINT    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  32(42)   3(45)
21N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   1(13)
21N 156W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  20(27)   1(28)
KAILUA-KONA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)
KAILUA-KONA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  32(38)   2(40)
KAHULUI        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)
KAHULUI        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)   5(29)
21N 158W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
21N 158W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

BARKING SANDS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  12(26)
BARKING SANDS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  33(42)   1(43)
HANA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)
HANA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  28(33)   2(35)
LANAI CITY     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)
LANAI CITY     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  30(34)   4(38)
KAUNAKAKAI     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)
KAUNAKAKAI     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  26(28)   5(33)
HONOLULU       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
HONOLULU       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  26(28)   5(33)
JOINT BASE PHH 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
JOINT BASE PHH 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

26N 159W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)

LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  11(28)
LIHUE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

20N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)

25N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)
25N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  12(24)
NIIHAU         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

21N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  10(20)
21N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)

NIHOA          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)
NIHOA          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

BUOY 51101     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)
BUOY 51101     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

22N 164W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)

NECKER         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)

25N 165W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)

FR FRIG SHOALS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN